Why Jean-Pierre Conte Believes Patient Capital Still Wins When Megadeals Return

US private equity deal value climbed about 8% year over year in the first half of 2025 to just over $195 billion, while US dry powder slid from a December 2024 peak of $1.3 trillion to roughly $880 billion by September, per PwC’s 2026 private equity outlook. Capital is moving, and most of it heads into a handful of very large transactions.

That concentration shapes how Jean-Pierre Conte, managing partner of Lupine Crest Capital, sizes up the 2026 market. His argument runs against the grain: the crowded top makes patient money more valuable, not less.

The Top of the Market Is Crowded

Megadeals have rebounded faster than the broader deal count. More sponsors chase fewer high-quality assets, while limited partners back fewer firms and demand sharper proof of value creation from the ones they fund.

Mid-sized sponsors lose assets they would have won in 2021. Larger platforms with continuation-vehicle capacity take some, and family offices that can move without committee approval take others.

The Arithmetic of Permanence

Fund-stage sponsors operate under hard exit windows, redemption pressure, and return targets that add cost to every quarter a portfolio company stays unsold. A buyer with permanent capital carries none of those meters running in the background.

The same asset is worth more to Conte’s family office than to a sponsor, because Lupine Crest does not price in the cost of selling by year five. Global fundraising tells the rest of the story: commitments to traditional commingled funds fell about 24% year over year, and the marginal dollar increasingly lands with family offices instead.

Where the Model Earns Its Keep

Bain & Company frames the year in its report Outlook: Gaining Traction as a narrow recovery driven by megadeals. A rebound leaning on a small set of giant deals stays exposed to the next macro shock.

Patient capital structures perform without needing that recovery to keep widening. Jean-Pierre Conte’s record across multiple cycles, paired with a willingness to hold through dislocation rather than around it, is what lets Lupine Crest compete where execution certainty counts more than headline price.